Botanical travel, climate and David Moore’s moral geographies of Europe

During his forty-year curatorship of the Royal Dublin Society's botanical gardens in Glasnevin (1838–1879), David Moore undertook a number of excursions to continental Europe. These served to deepen the networks of plant exchange between Dublin and other botanical institutions and allowed him to examine the relationships between climate, plant survivability and societal development. This paper focuses on two trips taken in the 1860s to Scandinavia and Iberia and charts how Moore situated his experience of these places within a climatic hermeneutic. Moore's understanding of northern and southern Europe was organized around a set of judgments about their relative backwardness or advancement with respect to his experience of home and was seen through the lens of a moral climatology. Moreover, his Scots Presbyterian background and his commitment to natural theology informed his interpretation of the landscapes he encountered in his excursions across Europe.

Hydroclimatic changes during the 8.2 ka event revealed by Irish pines

A pivotal cold event, deduced from the Greenland ice cores, took place between 8200 and 8000 cal. BP. Modelling of this climatic episode suggests that higher northern latitudes would have also experienced substantial reduction in rainfall and that Ireland would have observed a notable decline. No well-dated proxy record exists from the British Isles to test the model results. We present significant independent data for a phase of increased Scots pine initiation on Irish bogs at around 8150 cal. BP. Dendrochronological dating of sub-fossil Scots pine trees from three locations reveals synchronicity in germination across the area, indicative of a regional forcing, and allows for high-precision radiocarbon based dates. The starting rings of 40% of all samples from the north of Ireland dating to the period 8500-7500 cal. BP fall within a period of 25 years. The present colonisation model of Scots pine on peatland is interpreted as increasing drier conditions in the region and provides the first meaningful proxy data in support of a significant hydrological change in the north of Ireland accompanying the 8.2 ka event. The dating uncertainties associated with the Irish Scots pine record and the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) do not allow for any overlap between the two. The results indicate that the discrepancy could be a result of dating inaccuracy that could have affected analysis of prior proxy alignments.

Homogenization and analysis of an expanded long-term monthly rainfall network for the Island of Ireland (1850–2010)

Long-term precipitation series are critical for understanding emerging changes to the hydrological cycle. To this end we construct a homogenized Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network comprising 25 stations and a composite series covering the period 1850–2010, providing the second-longest regional precipitation archive in the British-Irish Isles. We expand the existing catalogue of long-term precipitation records for the island by recovering archived data for an additional eight stations. Following bridging and updating of stations HOMogenisation softwarE in R (HOMER) homogenization software is used to detect breaks using pairwise and joint detection. A total of 25 breakpoints are detected across 14 stations, and the majority (20) are corroborated by metadata. Assessment of variability and change in homogenized and extended precipitation records reveal positive (winter) and negative (summer) trends. Trends in records covering the typical period of digitization (1941 onwards) are not always representative of longer records. Furthermore, trends in post-homogenization series change magnitude and even direction at some stations. While cautionary flags are raised for some series, confidence in the derived network is high given attention paid to metadata, coherence of behaviour across the network and consistency of findings with other long-term climatic series such as England and Wales precipitation. As far as we are aware, this work represents the first application of HOMER to a long-term precipitation network and bodes well for use in other regions. It is expected that the homogenized IIP network will find wider utility in benchmarking and supporting climate services across the Island of Ireland, a sentinel location in the North Atlantic.

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.